Talga has had the run-up and then sale of news before, namely LKAB bowing out. There is this Stellantis MOU as well. I remember clearly in addition at least one other event, when the EVA pilot plant came online? We can all claim cahoots and illicit behavior, but I would like to see more concrete evidence. There is a lot of speculation inherent in Talga stock. There are a lot of smart people watching it. I don't think you need anything other than a cynical mind which expects delays in mining-related ventures to "take advantage" of sentiment toward upcoming news.
However, I do think it would be interesting to see who the big sellers were on Monday to ensure that none of them have any connection to Talga or to Stellantis personnel. Although frankly it would seem to be pretty small potatoes to risk going to jail, no? Talga sold down what, 12-15%?
This board is entirely too rosey at times, and deep down we all know it. I have argued that permitting delays may (did) occur, if you recall the original timeline of permits forecast being Q2 of 2022. I have been arguing a capital raise seems likely given the finances of Talga, this has now occurred as well. Delays may continue, but even I am starting to get optimistic at last. I would say it is around 50/50 that the Norrbotten CAB rules in favor of talga outright by the end of march, and the other 50% is a 6mo-1yr delay.
My suspicion is that MT is a lot like most investors here, which is that he is fundamentally optimistic, somewhat at the expense of cynicism or realism. The alternative is that he is playing on the optimism of others to string investors along until he reaches the promised land. I have not seen any behavior to suggest this is true. I think what you see is what you get. I don't think he understood the process of obtaining permits from Sweden or how long it might take. I don't think he got an honest appraisal from inside sources of how long permitting hearings would take. He simply knows that he will do whatever it takes, however long it takes, and that is good enough for him.
My deepest criticism with MT was that he did not make it abundantly clear that in ordering the equipment for standard spheroidization/shaping of graphite, necessarily Talga was abandoning their prior method of electrolytic rendering of graphite from impurities. MT admitted in one of his Q and A sections that for whatever reason, standard spheroidization creates a higher quality AAM, and the DFS release which had the $484M price tag reflected the machinery required to make the change. On the other hand, there are a lot of problems any company encounters in the world, and rarely will a company expose the problem until they have a solution. And even once a solution is known, rarely will a company reveal just how big a problem they may have experienced. Talga is not unique in this. I would have preferred more clarity in general. Im not even angry or annoyed that Talga had to change its approach to purifying or refining graphite, stuff happens. Things dont work out. You try some things, sometimes you fail. No big deal. I am annoyed that MT, to me, deliberately avoided owning up that Talga was mistaken on its original trajectory.
Ultimately MT follows the facts with regard to the direction of the company, and I think that approach will work. And, I believe that this is going to be one heck of a mining/anode/graphene company in the longer term future.
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