“Conductive graphite powder additives are abundant with no shortages in the foreseeable future”
It’s abundant because China is pumping out heavily subsidised, dirty synthetic using coal-powered energy. This is in order to dump, crash pricing and restrict western supply from coming online. This is done strategically, however it’s not sustainable for a number of reasons.
In 2028, the EU’s Battery Passport will introduce carbon footprint maximum thresholds. From the Battery Passport Guidance:
"In the context of the market conformity assessment Article83 holds that where non-compliance (with the maximum threshold) is assessed, the responsible economic operator shall eliminate the non-compliance. If this is not the case, the respective Member State “shall take all appropriate measures to restrict or prohibit the battery being made available on the market or ensure that it is recalled or withdrawn from the market”
This would effectively eliminate the EU market for China, who are already becoming caged in. You could argue that the EU may backtrack on this or push back this date, but for now, this is the upcoming legislation.
Why is China doing this? To keep a stranglehold on future technologies, which answers your next question as to why “any government or investor group would drop $100-150m USD on an anode plant”.
Strategic autonomy has become increasingly important to the EU after Covid and the Ukrainian war exposed their supply chains and their reliance on geopolitical adversaries. We’ve already seen China weaponising export restrictions of critical minerals, as they’re currently doing with graphite right now. I suggest you watch the recent Euromines debate: “Geopolitics at play: The war below for Europes defence”, especially the keynote speech from the Head of the EU Defence Fund.
I also find your criticism of the time it’s taken for Talga to come online to be misplaced. Talga’s business model is linked to their high-grade graphite deposit. A mine doesn’t happen overnight. Drilling must be conducted and two trial mining operations occurred. Pre-CRMA, environmental permitting in Europe usually takes 10 to 15 years, so any complaint about the business not advancing ignores this fact. Fortunately, this hurdle has now mostly been overcome. You also need to consider that Talga’s deposit is essentially 100% fine flake. This was not an attractive deposit pre-EV boom, which is why Teck sold off the deposit to Talga in 2012. Even if the company had permitting, financing a fine flake graphite mine, Pre-EV boom, during a time of globalist apathy and offshoring, would have been extremely unlikely. For context, the global EV market was only 130,000 sales in 2012.
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