Maybe this is oversimplified, I generally believe Talga will come down to:
Will Europe be firm on their carbon footprint maximum thresholds? If yes;
Will China be able to demonstrate they can meet these thresholds? China has a reputation for low quality products now, but they do work with foreign governments to meet their standards when its necessary. If China can do that, it's a problem for Talga. But if China can't continue to be a supplier;
Will this be enough to motivate European battery manufacturers to change their supply chains?
Those dot points above are the main hurdles in my eyes. Followed by some secondary questions:
Will Talga's product continue to meet qualification at scale?
Will customers they pay enough?
Will customers buy enough?
Point is, to what extent will Europe actually decouple from China at the end of the day. Because if they don't, I'm pessimistic that existing manufactures will take a risk on a new supplier unless the circumstances change and they are compelled to. That and Talga's messaging so far indicates they don't want to resort to bargain basement prices a means of getting sales.
I have to admit right now I'm feeling out of touch on the topic ongoing customer interest and offtake potential. For the longest time news has been mostly focused on other things like funding, permits, and the maco-economic climate. Naturally I'm also feeling very weathered by the stock price. I feel the company has potential, but I still can't get behind the idea that Talga is a sure-thing. Not yet. My 2c.
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