I've war-gamed the "maybes" as well, and done a fair bit of...

I've war-gamed the "maybes" as well, and done a fair bit of looking into how these ICSID processes work, and there's just no way around it for them. The time for negotiaton has long passed, and they now have a valid & substantial award against them. I've come to the conclusion that (a) they're stunned at the size of the award and they really really don’t like it and (b) they're hopelessly incompetent on the international legal stage. IMO this is a no-brainer, with bags of upside from the current share price (hence why I've now added over 1m since the award was announced).