The market seems to be agreeing that things are looking increasingly problematic.
I personally believe we will see a substantial oil price appreciation in coming months, and I am investing my money where my mouth is. But if I am wrong, and it takes 18 months, or 36 months, I want to be invested in companies that will still be operating then.
If "lower for longer" becomes reality, then TAP keeps going at the mercy of its creditors, running the risk of equity holders being left with nothing.
Of course, if we see oil bounce back swiftly, TAP could easily triple from here. Very high risk, potential high reward, and all in a short time frame.
I haven't held TAP for a few years, but I can sympathise with current holders. There is little point in selling now if you have ridden all the way down, so it becomes a question of whether to average down - a real risk if the survival of the business is in question.
I'm keeping it on my watchlist for now.
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