TAP (ASX) Ann: Tap Finalises Manora Facilities Capital Costs

Originally posted by choclit ↑

Yes, I am the immature one, where you completely avoided answering my questions to your “analysis” and went on a full character attack.

Let me recap that for you, in bullet points:

Basis for an average oil price of USD30 for the entire 2016

Where the need for an AUD20M cap raising is needed based on the factual figures I have provided.

Please answer these simple questions. Let us know you are here to add value and give a “balanced” analysis on the current state of play
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Now to address your points. How was I wrong with your references to UBS reports? I don’t recall countering your views back then. I was wondering why you are not referencing their reports now that they are forecasting USD50-55 oil price for 2016 whereas you have been consistently been using USD30 average oil price for 2016 in your “analysis”.

Secondly, Tap is not swimming in money right now as they have paid over USD40M in debt during 2015 (or thereabouts). They are scheduled to repay only USD21M for 2016. That is in their announcements. They are also due to receive USD9M this year from NGP, which should have been paid in 2015. Does that answer your question?

I am not opposed to others having differing views as long as when they sensationally claim “the need to raise AUD20M in capital raising which will have a staggering dilutionary effect of 200M new shares”, they can back these claims up with quantitative proof based on officially released numbers. As these claims can easily rattle already nervous investors that can make misinformed decisions.

If you cannot quantitatively back yourself up then you know what you are.

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Choclit
Oil now 29 . They have announced they NEED to hedge 30-50% of prod by 1st quarter 2016. That my friend is now - so if you want to Asssune a realised sales price of 45 or 55 , knock yourself out. I think 30 is fair

Their cash us such that they can't access restricted cash without a CR. what happens if oil drops to 25 or 20? Then it will be curtains. The CR will fall short and I wonder what will hallow next ?

I love it when people take cash costs and sales price and assume the rest goes into the bank. You simply don't understand oil business with those assumptions

Taps market cap is 30m - there is a very good reason why , because they have a fair bit of risk