I would say the EBITDA figure for the September quarter would be quite a bit better.
The IE report advises that AGO get about 55% of the lump headline price. It has gone up about 40% or so comparing to the June qtr average. It is now at about USD 0.29 dmtu or USD 18 per contract per contract. To be conservative I estimated they now get AUD 12 per contract compared to AUD 8 per contract last qtr.
I assumed the discount of fines would be about the same at 37% and the headline 62% FE price has about the same avg as last qtr.
The only difference being the AUD avg dropping from 0.75 to 0.74. The weighted avg sales price should increase to about $63 with better lump premiums and a lower AUD.
ALso DSO revenue will continue to ramp up and there would likely be a C1 savings given double handling and processing will be removed. We were averaging $37 in Sep qtr last year compared to $42 in the last qtr.
There should be $5M profit increase from FE+$4M profit increase from DSO and C1 savings of up to $9M (although some of the c1 saving may not happen until Dec qtr)
Of course having access to rail infrastructure and better economies of scale make AGO much more profitable! Come in Gina and you too Twiggy
Also, much of the working capital reduction during the June quarter of $14M will be replenished during the Sep quarter.
Much of the cash flow reduction of $14M was due to monies likely not received yet for the Lithium deal and surplus ore mined of about 270K but not yet processed or hauled to port.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
| 1 |
Closing March stock at site |
170500 |
from qtrly |
| 2 |
|
|
|
| 3 |
Shipped to port |
-1958537 |
from qtrly |
| 4 |
|
|
|
| 5 |
Closign June stock at site |
227740 |
from qtrly |
| 6 |
|
|
|
| 7 |
New stock produced |
2015777 |
|
| 8 |
|
|
|
| 9 |
Total ore processed |
2189230 |
from qtrly |
| 10 |
|
|
|
| 11 |
% of ore processed can be sold |
0.92077 |
|
| 12 |
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
|
| 14 |
Total Ore Mined |
2462900 |
from qtrly |
| 15 |
Ore Processed |
2189230 |
|
| 16 |
Still to be processed |
273670 |
|
View attachment 1210230
