ive got some on offer at 0.15. They're for Chris...an early 2023 Xmas present from me to him - except im being far more generous. But he needs to pull his finger out. Im pulling the order when we start drilling.
Holders should get their heads around what we have here.
NWE are being very conservative with their numbers. Id said this before in a post. This is roughly how it went...
- Pre 2019- Lockyer Deep and N Erregulla were two separate prospects. 250 BCF est high case.
- 2019 t Lockyer and North Erregulla were joined for the high case - which was now around 600 BCF
- 2020-2021 - new seismic interp, has the High case at 1.1 TCF or 1,100 BCF (thats when i first posted and called them out for being conservative).
(notice ive quoted the high case in all these instances? )- 2021/22 - discovery. 500 mD permeability (thats more like an open pipe, as opposed to rock pores) and we could be 2.4 TCF - 3.6 TCF or 2,400 BCF - 3,600 BCF. (So just imagine the looks on the faces of the poor souls who made decisions pre 2019 on the basis of those earlier interpretations.)
- At present, the company is saying the field covers 100km2 out of the 160 km2 possible. On that basis, and by extrapolating the flow test data, we get the 2.4-3.6 TCF estimate...if the 160 km2 is full, multiply these numbers by 1.6.
Can everyone see why CE was happy to gift wrap the offer with a bow? He knows all this. And he also knows that there is some uncertainty, but he is happy to take the punt. And he's no idiot - no one gets to being where he is without being smart ...and mercilessly punishing stupidity. So hes testing the mettle of SH and preying on the little bit of uncertainty that exists, so he (or his friend) can get a strong foothold into here and if they get enough people on the hook, theyre laughing all the way to the bank. Selling now? I can not bring myself to selling even one share (except for above disclosure) - as there is so much meat left on this plate.
So, in the near future...
- 2023 - L2 will give us an idea how much of the 160 km2 closure is full of gas. NED-1 will confirm the southerly extent.
- The other two holes (L3 and NED2) they have planned will test the field in other places to provide enough information to allow them to make a FID. They plan to drill those in the latter half of the year, after reviewing the L2 and NED1 drill data and the 3D seismic.
So if thats not enough...
Repeat this for Lead E , and if the Lockyer structure is full...get ready to see the same in Leads C and D.
Knowing this Im surprised Chris did not include a box of Ferrero Rocher's with the gift wrapping...but then..I guess he'dbe giving the game away.
