It seems Dr. Prendergast has been quietly planning to pivot Helix away from New South Wales for several months now. This shift could help explain the emergence of the Acta bid, especially if there were rumors that Helix was winding down its NSW exploration efforts.
As investors, we need to ask ourselves: Does this pivot align with the strategy we initially bought into? What exactly are we invested in, and was it the potential of the ground, or the promises made—such as the infamous "all-in on Cobar" statement—that attracted us? The portfolio is clearly shifting, and this raises critical questions. Will a transition out of NSW serve the interests of current shareholders, or could it be a significant strategic misstep?
Further, the company's ability to operate in both jurisdictions—New South Wales and Western Australia—remains questionable. How much dilution and additional capital raising will be necessary to execute this new plan, even if we assume, for argument’s sake, that the company can manage operations in both regions?
The proposed Bryah Basin ground consolidation, for example, might actually make more sense as a standalone IPO. Given Helix's ongoing divestment of non-NSW projects over the past few years, this looks increasingly like a move to raise new capital in a different jurisdiction, potentially with the aim of rebuilding in WA and offloading the NSW assets entirely.
The AGM vote will ultimately come down to a fundamental choice: Will current investors accept further dilution in exchange for what could be an IPO-like restructuring? Or will they back leadership committed to advancing the Cobar assets and pursuing a steady, focused exploration strategy?
In this context, the lack of detail in the Acta bidder’s statement—that broadly suggests "business as usual" if they succeed—makes a lot more sense. If Helix is indeed pivoting out of NSW, the bidder’s vague assurances about maintaining the current course could be a deliberate attempt to avoid alarming investors.
This is a pivotal moment for Helix, and the decision made at the AGM will have lasting implications for the company’s future direction.
All IMO, could be quite wrong. DYOR.
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