Well, they would only show which brokers had the volume. My...

Well, they would only show which brokers had the volume. My guess is that Lind will be trading through a broker but I'm not sure who they use.

I would suspect their footprint would be fairly well hidden with smaller orders coming through that amount to large quantities over time.

I do notice that we have a fair number of capping orders sitting at 13, 15, 18 & 23 (that 5m at 23 is especially important and is what's holding this market down). Unless of course whoever it is pulls it in time.

Either way we have a number of brake orders sitting there so we won't be going anywhere fast under the current conditions.

I guess below the 13/14 levels we have a sprinkling of irregular orders so either retail selling in frustration or someone like Lind offloading whole trying to hide their footprints. Keep in mind they have a truckload of options they can convert at any time at 10% discount to any chosen 5 day Vwap average in the last 20 days. Given where we are they can easily convert at say 0.7 or 0.8c and then dump on the way up at 12/13/14 for double their money. Not a bad return IMO.

At the slightly bigger picture I think your analysis is a good one. NM and PW are playing a waiting game while tin recovers and they can get T1 up and running. This could be years at current pace unless something changes the timing or urgency for NM/PW to drive it up. Who knows I guess it's possible.

As I reflect on this situation I see two distinct options for investors here:
1/ Load up at current levels if you can and then offload at say upto 100% trade profit. Not a bad strategy for limited returns and tax

2/ Load up now and wait until T1/T2 combo goes live and then just ride that train for a 1000% return. If you have time and don't mind just sitting for a time that might be a good option. Problem here is the wait and periods of time spent in red.

3/ Have a core holding long, then take smaller parcels to trade as ANW zigzags up a bit. This option is my current preferred approach but still requires a bit of knowledge, patience and skill.

All IMO of course and not advice just opinion of how I see this market at present.