I agree with UBS, debt is too high. I guess it is the lesser of two evils. We dont want dilution either.
Tiger has to pay that loan off ASAP.
@Names little, It will be very hard for you to replicate, you need to add a number of things. I will try make a model which is simpler to view. For example only 70% of the loan interest is in "financing costs" reason for this is there is a tax shield of approximately 30% which you can claim against your taxable income. Once you attain NPV of all cashflows divide it by number of outstanding shares and times it by 1.38 (AUD/USD). You will also have to modify copper price and the risk factor. Copper price is easy to get, you can get it from *****. Risk factor is always changing, this is hard to predict, theres also a lot of TA in this. What i would do is adjust the risk factor manually after every significant announcment until the PV = market value. Then in the coming days maintain the risk factor and adjust the daily copper price and AISC (from upcoming quarterly). Hope that helps.
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Amitabh Bachan you need volume in order to dump. They hold a significant amount of shares, they wouldnt be able to sell a large portion without dropping the price. They will more than likely hold until volume returns. Also regarding your sentiment comment. Wait until the quarterly comes out. I have a funy feeling AISC will be close to $1.5 if not lower. Anyone else want to make predictions?
@Hotfire
"you need to add sentiment value + risk value + debt value to the model"
Those are subjective. Meaning i would put in my variables, look at where the stock is, what my model is predicting and incorporate some TA. Its far from perfect but the model above provides a good indication or trend which follows the share price, not precisely, today for example it was off. Although credit to me it did open around 8.2c and 8.3c was high. Id say 75% of the time it is correct. I keep finding ways to tweak it and improve it. I thought my last model was good but it wasnt even close to this, six months from now il find ways to improve even this one.
Regards,
Nikec
