as I explained earlier:
Quad / CVN will "only" be able to book the volumes down to "LKO" (lowest known oil) in the Dorado structure .......
this means the "wedge" at the top .......
one needs to calc the "length" of the side of the triangle using basic trig ...... one needs to also look at the "slope or dip" of the sands (I used betwixt 4.5 deg's and 5.5 degrees from the sections)...
and then use the stated reserviior properties to calc a gross rock vol, and the oil sat, and then recovery factor ......
to me - the upside case for Dorado is "if the structure is full down to the last known oil water contact" (its in the roc announc's.......I got a potential column height of 437m +/- )..... this should be in the 3P "number" when they come out with the volumetrics ...
however - it is going to need (probably) 2 wells to test this ...........
will have to wait and see what the timeline is from the Operator .....
as previously stated - from a risk management perspective - it would be "nice" if CVN could farm-down a chunk of Buffalo - b/c its an either / or answer ......and it only takes a small error in seismic velocities for the upper compartment @ Buff to be smaller (or larger) .....and hence project financial rtn's ....
so - if they sell down, for some cash and a part carry - that would be great .......
rgds
V_H
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