The way I see it there are a number of catalysts that could drive the share price higher prior to raising equity from the market:
1. Real, final DFS with revised capex - given the sensitivity of project NPV and returns to capex, this is really the key and it is largely a function of time, ie. It is a waiting game and I would say 4-6 months at that
2. Strategic (equity) investment from New Cal miner(s) - there have been repeated suggestions of this possibility from the company (refer to announcements regarding ore supply agreements and also an interview with QPM's CEO following the announcement of one of those agreements). This will reduce the size of the equity raising required from the market. Given the strategic nature of such a transaction, I would expect it to take place at a price similar to or even above the $0.18 paid by GM (purely my opinion).
3. HPA - this is half baked at the moment as pointed out by an esteemed participant on this forum. They need to get the pilot plant online and samples sent out to potential offtakers and then secure an offtake. Fortunately, demand for HPA is robust4. Definitive debt financing package - with final commitments from NAIF, EFA, K-Sure and possibly other policy lenders, and a consortium of commercial lenders
In terms of sequencing, I would say 3, 2, 1 and then 4.Some posters have voiced fears that debt funding costs will be high but a looming recession in the US will ensure that interest rates reverse course just as quickly. Policy debt will have favourable rates attached compared with commercial debt.
The Energy/gas business is also a fascinating prospect with the potential to become a supplier of gas to the NQGP, albeit it is early days. I wonder if this business would attract strategic investment from a gas industry player.
All IMO and GLTAH.
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