Expected numbers: * EBITDA - A$546mil which is inline with the consensus of the long time poster's of 500-600mil
Non-priced in numbers:* IRR was a bit underwhelming at 18.4%, personally expected 22-25%
* Nickel (escpecially) and Cobalt prices are estimated a bit too high. But I like how the study presented the sensitivity outputs from US$22000 to US$30000.
* Production commercing timeline has delayed by at least 2 years (based on the Investor Roadshow Presentation on 06/10/21, commercing was slated at Sept 2023)
* Capex is the biggest killer here. A$2.1 bil, which is slightly higher than PFS $650mil * 2.7 = A$1.75 bil, if you take deduct the contingency the numbers are actual alright at A$1.9bil; but you would think scaleability in cost wouldn't be 1:1.
My opinion:* What a pessimistic feasilibty study this is, Capex blowout, base prices are bit too high, and more timeline delay. Should have just release this study earlier and rip that band-aid.
* Earning numbers do look good though, but does it matter if the Capex is 2.1bill?
* What is project indirects? Cut that crap out to save 238mil. Bunch of vultures bloating the Total Indirect cost, cut that 500mil out and the feasibility study would have looked way better.
* You thought even with the 2.7x scaleup, the capex wouldn't have bloated by more than 2.7x, why is the scalability in cost more than 1:1. I was honestly expecting 1.4 to 1.5bil capex as worst case.....
* Not a DFS, and we already knew most of these information, should have release it way earlier, I can understand if management is trying to bet on the reduce in capital estimate by delaying, but we could have raised new equity capital at a better price than now. Would have looked better at 500-600mil market cap to 2.1 bil, compared with 200-300mil to 2.1 bil.
* Now its not a surprise why the GM placement was A$0.18, they knew the numbers all along, what we thought was a kick in the stomach has now become a "premium", what a slap in the face for us long-term shareholders.
* The fact that we are still staying below 20c is just sad, the worry about the dilution is real, management need to do something so that any future inevitable raise (I hope) can be at least 40c.
Things I wish management could take note:
* Forget about stage 2 for now, get Stage 1 funding sorted ASAP
* The Stage 1 2.7x scaleup was requested by LG & POSCO, please ask for some prepayment for the funding for this unecessary financial risk, without more placements for goodness sake.
* GM stage 1 and 2, how about they give us prepayment too.
* The current state and federal government is super keen on green manufacturing and QPM's progress, management gotta take advantage of that and discuss these funding roadblocks to expand funding options.
* Stop using Foster brokering for placements and CR, these guys aren't putting the company's interest at all, its unbelievable we are still stuck below 20c all these whole time and soon to be <10c.
* Someone get Dr. SG a capable marketing manager, while he worked hard on the engineering side of things, this share price is literally on tight rope due to lack of attention on the marketing side.
Personally, I went pretty all in on this company the past 2 years because of the story, I really want this company to take off. Maybe I was greedy. With regret I have reduced my position to free carry (sold some today at a lost of course). Congrats to the traders and short term holders. I was hoping long term investor like us can be rewarded but thats the market for you.
I will buy again when funding is confirmed.
