* We already know that there is at least 1.05bil in debt funding coming from EFA A$250m, K-Sure US$190m (A$283m), NAIF (alleged for now) A$500m. The issue is we have no idea where that 900mil is yet to come, and these further delay are hurting existing shareholders.
* Everyone who has invested in specs knew this enough. The market does not give a crap when companies give covid/supply chain and inflation delay excuses if you dont have cash flow from production. Producers are able to get away with this because they are already producing (FMG Iron bridge), we aren't.
I can complain that the market is wrong for pricing QPM as it is now, but at the end of the day, the market is the one moving the price, eventually they become "wrongfully right" and there is nothing we can really do about that.
* Remember the June bloodbath due to the DFS delay? Now we are also facing almost 3 years of delay before production (2 year before commision), are we gonna stay at 10-20c for these 2-3 years?
If funding does not come in time, the company is gonna get diluted like crazy in future CR, then you also have the consolidation risk (I noticed a trend where ASX companies that have consolidated their share will end up dropping anyway, further inflicting financial pain to loyal shareholders who held before consolidation.),this is the biggest risk I am most worried about.
* The GM placement is indeed at A$0.18 per share. Yeah its a premium to the June and July lows, but its still a huge discount from the 0.28 ATH and a huge dillution. Furthermore, the longer we stay below 300mil, the more we are risked to ASX Listing Rule 7.1A, the 10% placement, or I would call it the unavoidable 10% share dilution. This has happened every year. Its like some big boys brokerage out there are constantly trying to supress the market cap below 300mil for the past 2 years.
* No patience for QPM's sp to stay flat for 2-3 years, its literally better to be conservative investing in ETF and Blue chip to get 7-8% gains/dividends annually.
* I am still holding and will buy more when funding is confirmed, since Capex risk is significantly diminished when you are fully funded.
The question to ask is, with this Capex figures at the moment, how many insto/funding firms out there are convinced to put in the remaining 900mil to get this project off the ground. QPM is fighting against time/hype right here, if the funding does not come on time, the delay is gonna exacerbate. Worst, becoming an AUZ, SRL equivalent (no offence).
* "Do not write them off"
Thanks for saying this, I believe this is what we holders need right now, but at the end of the day, we gotta protect our investments/emotions. Invest cautiously is the right thing.
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