re: Ann: Technical and Corporate Presentation... Georgetowntas, we have had plenty of good news.
Today’s was a presentation containing mostly info already released so wasn't likely to move the price much.
I did like the mention that they are looking at u/g mine design in the scoping study upgrade that’s due soon.
That is new and excellent news IMO, although the market might not appreciate the potential significance (I’m about the only one here talking much about u/g potential) or they might just want to wait and see. Best guide we have is that the scoping study update is likely to be released around a month after the jorc upgrade.
Todays presentation also contained the following regarding capex;
“Due to recent results on recovery quality, ABM believes this can be considerably reduced via scalable development including trial mining.”
They are sticking to guidance that capex will be lower than the original already very low estimate.
“Purchase plant with capital cost to be finalised (budgeting ~$2M + installation)”
Darren expects that he can add a crusher larger than needed for a much smaller amount than the $2 mill.
Add the cost of a relatively small generator and camp, and we are ready to produce with a very small capex.
No prestrip or u/g development capex. “First shovel pays” is spot on.
That’s very rare as is so much about this project.
The presentation released today might have a delayed positive effect.
If Darren attracts a few new investors tomorrow (or Friday) in his presentation in Hong Kong, that might drive the sp higher as they buy but that's a guessing game. Any buying, if it happens, might start tomorrow or after a few days.
The jorc resource upgrade is likely to have a positive effect if it pleases the market.
That could be out any day now.
Hopefully Darren is able to finalise it for release in time to present it in Hong Kong.
That might help attract larger investors if we have a larger high grade jorc at OP.
Not sure if Darren presents tomorrow or Friday.
Maybe if the jorc upgrade is not ready in time and Darren puts a positive spin on the upside, any potential buyers might be in more of a hurry to buy before it’s released.
Yes I am an optimist.
There are 12 ASX listed companies presenting and interestingly the only one focused primarily on gold in Australia is ABU.
The others have either mainly overseas assets or are silver focused.
That might make us stand out from the crowd especially with our grades.
8c was a very realistic target for 2012 based on the chart, and the excellent exploration results that did eventuate.
We hit 8c in 2011 and even got close to 8c as far back as 2009.
We were and still are in a long term uptrend so a higher peak than 8c was a very realistic target based on the chart as well as the news flow and rapidly improving fundamentals.
In neither of those years did we have a jorc at OP, a scoping study showing very low capex and very high margins.
Nor did we have GH, the Western limb extension, East vein and Heartland veins, all added since the jorc.
Unfortunately most other juniors went down badly during 2012 with some halving and then halving again.
Even NCM almost halved from its 2011 peak during 2012, and it was not alone.
Very difficult for ABU to reach my target with that backdrop.
Targets are not set in stone. They are based on info and market conditions at the time.
The news flow was good but the market for most explorers in 2012 was a disaster.
To put a positive spin on it; it just gives us more upside potential for this year!
I’ll stick to at least 8-9c for this year’s target, and if all goes to plan it could easily go significantly higher.
I’m not afraid of being wrong. I’ll state it as I see it.
If market conditions for explorers get worse so be it.
In any case there is a good chance that by the end of the year we will be a producer.
A target is just that. It’s not meant to be a guaranteed price prediction.
If anyone sees a good reason why my target for last year or this year was/is not reasonable, lets here it and why.
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