Thank you for other posters' contributions in attempt to value...

Thank you for other posters' contributions in attempt to value MNB's green ammonia project, particularly Chuk. This has inspired me to undertake my own analysis on the basis that this project, along with the phosphate project, may be large drivers of the company's valuation going forward.

My findings are not financial advice and are developed using simple desktop analysis from figures derived from online sources and the technical study. My estimate of the 27-year post-tax NPV is $913 million AUD. The internal rate of return (IRR) is estimated to be 21%.

In developing this estimate, I have attempted to be somewhat conservative with my assumptions. The following are assumptions of importance.
- 27-year time horizon to capture the 32-month construction and 25 years of low electricity prices
- 10% discount rate
- 3% inflation rate
- currently prevailing exchange rates
- plus 35% to the capex estimate reported in the technical study
- production of 1,710 MTPD of nitrogen products with a cost of $160 USD per MT and a sale price of $450 USD per MT
- 25% corporate tax rate on operating profits
- includes costs for depreciation and other operating costs (management, land etc.)

The sale price for these nitrogen products has been derived using a $250 USD spot price for green ammonia and the $200 USD inland premium reported in the study.