The study states that the plant will produce 320 MTPD of green ammonia. This ammonia will be used to create 730 MTPD of low-density ammonium nitrate and 980 MTPD of calcium ammonium nitrate. I have collectively referred to these as nitrate products with a single sale price.
The $250 USD spot price is a conservative benchmark, noting that the price is indexed by 3% each year for the discounted cash flow analysis.
The corporate tax rate in Angola is currently 25%. This rate could be reduced through cleaver corporate structures or a Government sanctioned discount. However, there is no evidence that a reduced tax rate will apply noting that the Government has already provided MNB with a great electricity tariff over the next 25 years.
The study's capex estimate has an accuracy range of +/-35% and does not include spare parts, lab equipment, custom duties and other costs. As such, I have applied 35% increase.
Even with these relatively conservative assumptions, the project still has an attractive NPV being close to $1 billion AUD! I implore others to experiment with various input figures given the project's NPV is highly sensitive to capex, sale prices etc.
Bring on the pre-feasibility study!
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