Thank youfor your view on Zircaix. My takeaway reading through...

Thank youfor your view on Zircaix. My takeaway reading through the discussion: Its fairto assume that there is a very high probability (>90%) Zircaix shouldreceive FDA approval, main question remain not if but when it should get approval. November 2024 seems a fair assumption.

While its not the forum to discuss Heidelberg Pharma - sorry for that - replying to your questions:

I think the Zircaix approval would be agamechanger for Heidelberg Pharma equity story, as it would remove any equitydilution risk in the foreseeable future and the royalty stream could by itselfbe worth a lot more than the EV. -

The USD 75m milestone for Zircaixwould pay for R&D cash reach End 2026, while if a commercial success, basedon my calculation the NPV of the royalty stream could be worth somethingaround EUR 400m vs. EV of <100m (17% royalty p.a. on USD750m global peak sales on cumulated product sales USD >200m, 10% discountrate). Additionally, I believe the Zircaixapproval should also be marginally positive for the probability of approval for TLX250 as a therapeutics:Heidelberg Pharma would receive 5% of the royalty stream on TLX250

what else do they have going for them ?
They are an antibody drug conjugate (ADC) player. They build a plug&playtechnology platform with focus on the payload side. Besidesthe recently launched exatecan toxin, the main story is thatthey have exclusivity for a novel payload toxin called alphaamanitin. It is still early stage. The most advanced clinical asset is in PhaseI --> 6th cohort of dose escalation for multiple myeloma. In the 5th cohort forthis novel payload they were for the first time able to show in humanefficacy (data came out it March). so high risk, but quite some upside given that its a novel payload that could be used well in the x-line of treatment given no known resistance to currently approved treatments. quite promising, even through the share price doesnot reflect it. in my opinion primarily due to poor sentiment for cash burningbiotech and there appears to be some share overhang.

So the Zircaix approval would be great, taking out financing risk for the foreseeable future.