it wasn’t that long ago that a 2c raise was completed taking...

it wasn’t that long ago that a 2c raise was completed taking issued capital up to around 300m SOI for a market cap of $6m or so, now we are at 2.4 etc with double the SOI after 6 months… how does a valuation of $15m+ stack up without at least $1m in revenue? At $6m HMD struggled to be worth $6m but $15-18m on the same revenue base is ok as long as SOI has tripled? Dunno mate…. A year ago 7c was the raise price, the next one is going to be lower than that unless revenue goes ballistic.

All in all, I just wonder if the business has the capacity to accelerate past the SOI hurdle. A medical device company with good growth is more than capable of 25-35x PE so if HMD was knocking out $1m+ PROFIT then that would give a share price of 4-6c based on 600m SOI so how does a price of 2.4c make it past the line? Especially given the amount of misses that have been a reality of execution. Dunno, Dunno, Dunno….

The money that I was going to tip in at 2c raise last year went into a Fintech that is going well enough to attract a family office of sovereign wealth level of investment, Why hasn’t the Wylie family just taken HMD out? They have a holding and it is slowly increasing but just at loose change levels. I would LOVE more than anything to be completely wrong and I still have plenty of shares to make a worthwhile outcome if it all completes but I personally am a bit reluctant to believe the story UNLESS we get some actual WINS under the belt. There is deliberate emphasis on the multiple success, HMD needs at least 3 contracts in the 10,000s and so far the biggest ever sign up from as friendly a hospital as possible (Joondy, part developer of HeraCare) topped out under 3,000. It used to be that about 10-15,000 licenses were required for break even, that might still be the case but with the dilution of 600m shares on board where does that put the price? 2.4c is probably fair game for a revenue neutral company that is about to sign some large contracts and that then needs to raise to build the team and devices etc to complete those contracts. If RECURRING revenue is under $500k then how is the market cap worth more than $3-6m given how wide of the mark execution has been?

I’m currently sitting in my lovely 1950’s style Bruns beach house hoping that this somewhat negative post ages really badly and that we all end up on a flotilla of kayaks paddling to the Bruns pub for an afternoon into evening of magnificent celebration that little HMD turned out to be the little company that COULD and we all up with more money than we started with!

the 4C isn’t far away so let’s wait to see what that has to say. Hopefully someone will quote this post in 6 months time as having aged very poorly…