From whats known the board informed abt its intent to sell some of its segments or the whole lot (WOC).
Recently they had asked an independent consultant (Bain & Co. ) to run the later scenario for them & from what we've read in the media, the question thats been asked to the AIO Board is "how does the management envisage paying off $4.592b worth of debt"?
Here's how I see it folks, should Ebitda for this fin year come in at say $680m, then apprx 6.75 yrs of similar sort of earnings could see them play catch up & pay of that debt, (i.e, $680*6.75 = $4590m). However, they'd still need cash for running bizness as usual, so the debt wont b paid off in 6.75 yrs.
However, if they sell the Ports, for $1.5b, then this debt could b lowered to an acceptable level, say $3b which can b paid of in 4.4 years (ie $3000m/$680m).
Now as part of this "Monetisation Process", they've rec'd 3 bids for the WOC & for the 3-ports & 1-haulage.
Last July they were offered $4.40/sh or $2.9b with the same amt of debt which gave an EV of $7.492b.
IMO, they will still go with Plan-A, i.e WOC. For this, using straight fwd maths, we get the following numbers,
$1500m - $2.14/sh $1749m - $2.50/sh $1925m - $2.75/sh $2100m - $3/sh $3051m - $4.365/sh (as per my calcs this is MR's avg SP)
One can go on extrapolating the numbers, till the CEO thinks more abt the shareholders rather then his vested interests, which BTW are averaging $4.365/sh.
Now as for a T/H, when a right offer is on the table, I'd say they would announce it to the mkt.
My gut feel is still with TPG going for the lot. It seems they want Asciano real bad & thats why they've taken a second shot at them in 8 months. So, perhaps they have the cash & know-how, to run this bizness & surely see a value.
Anyways folks, its a buyers mkt, we can only debate abt the likely scenarios till the deal is done, the final decision still rests with the board.
Just my thoughts.
AIO Price at posting:
$1.11 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
