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Good points thks. Communication Minister speaking on this now to...

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126 Posts.

14/06/17

13:49

Post #: 25268004
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Originally posted by Galba ↑

I share my condolences to others caught up in this... It was sudden but given the updates it was always a gamble. We can apportion our blame elsewhere, but we must take responsibility for our own decisions. So, treat this something you can possible learn something from I.e. turning a negative into a positive, so for me some learning points:

In future, I won’t be backing something that requires our politicians to get their act together in parliament in a hurry – i.e. the main attraction for me was the reduction in broadcasting fees, as well as fixing the 2/3 or reach rule – (The ironic thing here is that due to Labor, ONP worrying about the concentration of media, this very exact thing is likely to happen as it will be carved up by NewsCorp and Foxtel and/or likely owned by Gordon/Murdoch in some other form)

More pertinent for me was to back the millionaires who were owed a dollar to keep ‘kicking the can down the road to get paid’ (debt guarantee). Obviously, they had decided after losing 90% of their own money that enough was enough. Some more context around TEN’s historical losers of money is in the - see AFR article below

I can’t help but think of the common noise in the background – that is to back people who are experts/made money in their field, If I was being blunt or cynical It could be fair to say this was ‘dumb’ money

Clearly binary events, are always fought with risk, and even if you think you have the odds in your favour, beware of confirmation bias. In my case, I wasn’t even allowed to stop out of this position, so again was I fully aware of the negative risk, in hindsight, perhaps not

As mentioned, article below about the people who have lost $’s on TEN

Ten Network a poisoned chalice
http://www.copyright link/brand/cha...uation-overrun-with-conflicts-20170613-gwqf5z

Other points that others might be saying are rightly:

FTA is in decline, yes we have known that for a while, but it is still a public good, the license is worth money, people still watch free sport.. @sreeve has made a good point, in that the ABC/SBS are overfunded. Perhaps there is only room for two commercial broadcasters.

TA was awful, and many did get chances to get out

Position size is dictated by risk, so for me it was never an all in bet, but one where I felt the rewards outweigh the risks.

Surely it can’t all be because of Waleed??

@Theabyss absolutely good point, the deals that Murdoch did for TEN were absolutely sheet, the ASA rightly pointed out conflict of interest, so hopefully they can get a better deal at least. However, the risk is they lose shows like Masterchef as they shop their contract around and others et all

Anyway for those doing it tough @stockloser @ 568325083 hang in there. There will be better days ahead. Just try and learn from it, and put some better habits/practices in place. There will always be a future winner out there if you apply yourself, and keep your head down

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Good points thks. Communication Minister speaking on this now to put pressure on Senate to pass the media reforms.
Tough times for holders...some are saying Ten equity gets nothing out of VA, but I'm not so sure.
This isn't a Channel Nine that was drowning in $3bn of debt... more like $30m net at Feb17 albeit growing with Ten's most recent full year guidance of a $25-$30m loss.

But consider the latest announcement specifies the following earnings improvement initiatives:
+$22m from licence reduction
+$50m from transformation program
and in principle agreement reached to cut by 50% the future US content liabilities (reported at $150m pa), so if correct savings would be +$75m.

Maybe they're optimistic and trying to shop the business, but doubt they would put these things into such a heavily legally scrutinised document at such a sensitive time, unless they were realistically achievable...

this may be enough to attract a buyer even if 2/3 rule doesn't get repealed.

good luck all
TEN Price at posting: 16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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