Someone may have done this analysis before, so my apologies if I'm reinventing the wheel here.
On 14/7/2020, the company released this statement: "Four US university hospitals deploy GMV's IDTF platform"
Then on 27/7/2020, the company released this statement: "Two more university hospitals have deployed IDTF - takes the total to six - with active patient enrolments and treatment ongoing and increasing"
Then on 24/8/2020, the company released this statement: "Four more university hospitals have deployed IDTF services, taking total deployments to ten"
Three observations can be made from the above announcements
Firstly, on revenue
For the month of July 2020, we only had full month of operation from only 4 hospitals. Another 2 hospitals came on board after 14/7/2020 so would have, at the most, contributed for the 2nd half of July. For argument's sake, let's assume we had an equivalent of 5 hospitals contributing a full month in July 2020.
Now in July we had 2275 patients through the 5 hospitals, which is 455 patients per hospital. On 24/8/2020 we now have deployment in 10 hospitals, and another 7 completed evaluation and coming on board. So for Sepember 2020 we should have at least 10 hospitals x 455 patients each = 4550 patients. In October 2020, we should have at least 17 hospitals x 455 patients each = 7735 patients. Add these to the monthly non hospital patients of 2000, we should have 6550 patients for September 2020, and 9735 patients for October 2020. Times these numbers by $200, then we should have US$1,547,000 for September 2020, and US$1,947,000 for October 2020.
If you are conservative and assume no further growth in US hospital numbers, then you have, based on October 2020 numbers, an annualized revenue of $194700 x 12 = US$23,364,000. As others have pointed out, this will definitely make GMV cashflow positive, and give it a revenue multiple of 1x. So we are incredibly cheap.
Secondly, on the rate of growth
The conservative assumption that there will be no further growth in US hospital numbers is simply unrealistic.
In the 2 weeks between 14/7/2020 and 27/7/2020 we added 2 hospitals - ie. 1 hospital per week
In the 4 weeks between 24/8/2020 and 24/7/2020 we added another 6 hospitals - ie 1.5 hospitals per week
On 27/8/2020 there were a further 7 hospitals having completed evaluation stage - so at least another 7 hospitals in the next 2-4 weeks.... - ie. 2 hospitals per week
So what we have here is clearly an exponential growth curve in numbers of hospitals recruitment. The annualized US$23,364,000 based on no more hospitals growth is a very unlikely scenario. On this basis, we should be expecting much, much higher numbers in patient numbers and monthly revenue.
Thirdly, on the iminence of growth, and the frequency of updates to ASX and shareholders
We've been getting an update from GMV on hospital and patient numbers every 2 to 4 weeks since 14/7/2020. The last announcement was 24/8/2020, so the next announcement should be on 7/9/2020, or latest, 21/9/2020. These announcements will confirm the exponential growth in hospital numbers, and GMV's revenue, well before delisting on ASX and listing on NASDAQ.
GMV's share price will be re-rated accordingly, well before delisting on ASX.
AIMO and GLTAH
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