Ann: TER: Further Acceptances Received, page-32

So with the divergence in share prices still going on, the TER offer is now at a discount to current UNV trading price.

Cash of 10c and 0.6 of a TER share at 19c is 11.4c. Total is 21.4c versus a current SP of 22.5c.

Can't see many more accepting at these levels.

Will be interesting to see the 2 sets of financials coming out this week.

I'm not sure what to expect from TER.

H2 2019 revenue averaged A$112.56 / tonne and costs were $68.03 / tonne (as per slide 23 of their full year results presentation) for BA. BNU was worse at A$94.19 / tonne and $92.38 costs per tonne. They also report the $2 royalty payable to OCP in financial expenses so is in addition to these costs so essentially breakeven at best.

So this gives an operating EBITDA per tonne of $44.53 / tonne at BA and BNU of $1.81 (plus the $2 royalty per tonne in finance costs).

The September quarter showed a drop in both, BA dropping to $23 / tonne and BNU at a loss of $13 / tonne. Coal prices have continued to decline into the December quarter so I suspect their margins will also continue to fall.

Meanwhile, I expect UNV to be down YOY but not the same extent largely due to the natural hedge their receive from their Eskom / supplier agreements (which I'm told don't make sense as I know nothing about corporate finance eh BB, despite the fact that hedges are designed for risk mitigation rather than profit maximisation - the exact scenario that is now playing out).

I guess we'll see how this pans out but TER are falling harder than much of the market and I suspect this may have to do with a poor 6 months financially, and with the coal price still continuing on its downward trend, the start of 2020 probably isn't going to be much better.