Ann: Terminal connectivity issue, page-119

I read TYRO’s announcement of 4 January and compared it to yesterdays with the details set out below.

2019/20 increase in transaction value (from 4/1/21 announcement):

- 2019/20 increase of 15% above previous year despite March and April months being down 38% and 18%, respectively (Feb 2020 was up 30% i.e. pre COVID)

- 2020/21 YTD – up 10% with monthly figures:

o July 2020 – up 11%

o Aug down 4%

o Sept up 5%

o Oct up 10%

o Nov up 13%

o Dec up 19%

Despite Victoria being in lockdown from July to November (about 110 days), TYROs transaction values increased (except August) which is quite impressive. December is notable being 19% higher than the previous year. The Brisbane lockdown was only a few days and represents a much smaller population than Victoria, so the impact is likely to be quite small.

From yesterday’s announcement transaction values in Jan 2020 to 12 Jan are 1-3% above the previous year. That is, transaction values seem to be down in real terms by 15% to 20% (best comparison is Dec 2020 which was up 19%). This is the best indicator of the real impact on TYRO’s business based on data published by TYRO. It should be noted that the the connectivity issue did not impact the first 5 days of January (i.e. until 7pm 5 January) so the real impact on transaction value will be much higher than 15%-20% since 5 January (probably at least 30% and probably more) but that impact will decline as TYRO reconnects machines.

In the scheme of things this event will not be a significant drag on TYRO's transaction values over a year (unless it happens again). The big issue is what the longer term impact will be on merchants moving to other providers and on new business volumes - this is very hard to estimate and involves a certain amount of speculation.

Do posters believe TYRO is genuine about the real impact on their business based on my analysis?

Interested in other views (and any errors in the above numbers).