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4DS

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8.4¢ 4ds memory limited

Thanks brab, totally agree on lost ops, my thinking is that if...

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1956

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14/02/22

15:31

Post #: 59559119
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Originally posted by Brabant90: ↑

1956 , mate I have no more answers than you.

All I can do is listing negative and positive facts and try to decide where to go from here.:

Positive facts :

- CR was oversuscribed.
- Volume are up since 2020.
- They built a new test system from components avaible on market (Intel and others are doing the same - in house test system built from components avaible on markets)
- The SP seems to have found de floor at 0,08.
- The global context is highly inflationnary, and that means that every dogs could go up because lot and lot of cash will be avaible like in 2012 to 2015.
- The ASX seems to agree with the fact that this company can go on without any real accountability to shareholders and they may agree with this very extraordinary situation because they are given some positive information unavaible to ordinary shareholders.
- Imec has been granted a piece of the royalties on futur licences of the technology (a fact that has been hidden to shareholders until this royalty had been caped to 5 millions recently).

Negative facts

- Shareholders can't have any confidence in what the board is saying. There is no third party confirmation of what the board says they achieved (Imec is not a neutral third party, they are paid for what they do and neither Imec or WDC ever made a real supportive public comment about 4DS).

- Note dateline was ever respected for plateform lots.

- The fact that the company has less and less emplyees. 4DS Inc had 6 emplyees at the time they asked for a special COVID grant in 2020. In 2021, Desu left. In october 2022 van Burskik will retire. That left four employees at 4DS inc, in Fremont. Who will work on the new testing equipement ?

- 4DS looks more and more like an administrative hub to gather and dispatch money were it is needed. Is that a real company ?

- Shareholders are not given any analysis about what will happen if the futur plateform lot fails. No other strategy no other product that could be derived from the actual cell (an AI joint venture ?). They didn't give any value do the patent portefolio. The board seems happy to let shareholders face a total loss of capital in july. This is not a normal behaviour for a listed company. In fact, nothing is normal with 4DS.

What I believe

The company seems to have a real aversion for retail shareholders, and the last three updates had a negative tone as if they wanted to retail shareholders to sell. Absolutely no piece of information shareholders could use to justify their decision to invest in 4DS.
May be ASX told them to avoid giving false hope or may be they decide this themselves (JD did said a few years ago that this stock was not for everyone).

Or maybe there is another reason.

It seems that the board will be happy with high net worth investors holding 70% of the company.
DM (the miracle man) seems much more confortable with this kind of rich shareholders.

I think he could give them some special information (not insider information, though) that could provide a more accurate understanding of the project and the risks. Some contextual information, some meetings with the board could be enough to change the perspective completely, from what is avaible to us through market annoucements.

Sometimes it looks like the 4DS project is much more ambitous than we think, but with a very very high risk.
Such a project could seduce high net worth investors who want to be part an andeavour that could change the world - There are not so many around !

4DS could be like a Christopher Colombus expedition to discover a road to India that would change the world.
If you had a few hundred thousand bucks to spend, would'nt you want to be be part of this story ?

This could explain the contradiction between an oversuscribed CR and a succession of discouraging announcements with a thinly veiled negative tone.

But this is only guessing. Other explanations could be true.

I would take advantage of this post to add something about the new test equipement.

Testing has become a very important part of the difficult path to bring new semiconductors to the market.
Specialy when small nodes of 7 or 5 nanometers are reached. It is not easy to understand what's realy happening at this level, and any problem could have different explanations.
This gives room to potential litigations (and those litigations do happen in the industry right now between fabless chips designers and the fab that have to put this design on silicon).

Beside, a futur 4DS megabit chip will be tested with thoses new tools by potential suitors. It is only logical that 4DS would want to have the same.
When we are talking of a final product, design is not enough. You have to know exactly what realy happen at every level of the process of making the wafer. And new testing tools allow precisely that.

This is the reason why I believe the decision to buy a more efficient testing equipment is a positive news.
It is becoming real.

And also, they will be in a better position to discuss with imec.
If the next wafers fail because of a contamination, they will know it, whatever imec says.

Here is an excellent paper from Semiengineering about the cost of testing lab equipment, that could reach 2 millions dollars in 2022.

https://semiengineering.com/test-costs-spiking/

CONCLUSION

Trying to answer your question, I would say that there is no doubt in my mind that investing in 4DS - at the level I did - was certainly the worst investment decision I ever made.

I didn't lost money but the cost in term of lost oportunities was enormous.

As I was digging and researching the semiconductor industry, many monumental changes happened in the world.

For exemple, I missed the lithium boom that provided australian investors with many low risk ten baggers between december 2019, and now (LTR, PLS and GLN to name a few).

I'll keep a half million parcel in 4DS and will continue to follow this extraordinary story.

But I get out of the 4DS jail and I am know more interested in other specs.

Extraordinary things are happening now at the Monetary / Political / Societal level (I do share some of Happydays ideas)
The lithium festval is almost over but the oil story may be just starting and I noticed some 4DS LTH seem now interested in oil specs (8tey invested in MAY, it seems).

This is not to say that 4DS will not be a tremendous success, at the end.

But as long as the board will refuse to realy explain what they are doing, it will mean that they dont want retail shareholders.
And if they want to exclude this kind of investors, they will succeed in doing it. No need to fight the board.

The risk of complete loss of capital is real without more information. And information is volontarily whitheld.
This is where we are.

At the end of the day, I will quote this old priest in a David Linch movie (Ryan's Daugther)
"I know you think it will faill, but I doubt it. And this is my present for you : this doubt"

Good luck man.

cdsq

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Thanks brab, totally agree on lost ops, my thinking is that if they dont want retail but instos am still stickin on coz we both get the same prices on a sale, am locked in fig and may stop buying for now and I too missed lith, ect but ops are coming hydrogen for one, so time now to look around start placing some bets LT and keep close on 4DS, if it looks like going awol then I book a loss and spread the rest , thats stocks for ya. that said am still rooting for the doc.

cheers mate, you were always great for provoking alternate thinking , loved it.

4DS Price at posting: 7.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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