I don't fully agree with your predictions of no significant shorter play for 35 days.
Back on the 3rd of July in a post I noted that TFC had breached the 50EMA and was sitting on the 100EMA and that in previous history when these targets where breached and held that twice it rose significantly on the first occasion for 5 trading days and the second time for 10 trading days. The 3rd July the breach didn't hold nor did the 13th of July breach. However this breach on the 21st not only held but rose significantly the next day.
At this time I should point out that history never exactly repeats itself but it does rhyme allot ( agreed, its been heard but what else can a chartist say). Where am I going with this.
My forward expectations: A rise from $1.62 for a minimum of 3 -8 TD's (assuming no world significant market events). That puts us into August. With the recent press from a multitude of sources anticipated price levels of high $1.60's to $1.70's and a remote chance of low $180's. But that puts us only a small period into your 35 days. And then shorter's August plays?
Rhyming history suggests a big shorter ( U guessed it) 2 plays in August (low volume sales lower to shake out nervous profit takers, picking higher volumes on the up swing):
* Low on 4th Aug 2014 price $1.63 Price 8 TD's earlier $1.90 ---- price 11 TD's after low $2.13 (S***load of profit)
* Low on 21 Aug 2015 price $1.38 Price 5 TD's earlier $1.61 ---- price 3 days after low $1.60 (tasty profit in a short period)
Again all this can happen with many days to spare before the 35 day deadline.
With recent news I think that this years play will be 12-20 c from the peak. How confident that a play will be made in August?
Well I am a betting man and if I was to be offer odds of 6/4 on the outcome I would be on.
One last thing and its a bit important. The end of this up swing season usually results in twin peaks with the shorter making money in between. Be careful at the end.
Time is a great exposer of theories, we shall see.
cheers
TFC Price at posting:
$1.63 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
