Ann: TGA 2013 Results Presentation , page-28

“Agree PP and if the Mr Market takes the same view where would you expect the SP to head.”

You are correct in classifying TGA as a shlong – the price is neither so low or so high as to make guessing the future movement obvious.

What are TGA's worth to me? About $2.45. I guesstimated this by using Thomson Consensus Estimates for EPS for 2013, 2014 & 2015, and assumed DPS would be 55% thereof. I also assumed the current PER would suffice as a guestimate to work out the SP in 2015 (very crude, I know). With an estimate of dividends for three years and an imputed SP in 2015, using 10% as my RRR, I get a NPV of the dividends and the SP in 2015 of about $2.45. The SP could easily move 10% either below or above that rough guestimated SP.

When I said that I was disappointed in the diluted EPS of 19.01 cents, I expected that management would elect to pitch the EPS a little higher than last year, because TGA could easily orchestrate its EPS up half a cent or more, but at the expense of slowing down the pace of change required to position itself a few year down the track. It appears from the Thomson Consensus Estimates and from comments made by John Hughes, TGA is aiming for results in 2015, and they did not window dress 2013 to humour the plebs, and I think they will do the same for 2014. So maybe the SP will not do much for the next 18 months to two years, but nobody knows what it will do, least of all me. I sold out of SGH at $2.65, and within months the SP rallied to above $3.000 ($2.960 on COB, 23/5/13), and much the same can be said of other stocks that I have sold.