TGS 0.00% 4.9¢ tiger resources limited

Personally, this is the first time, I like the silence in their...

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  1. 15 Posts.
    Personally, this is the first time, I like the silence in their communications, because we might assume the SPA deal is not progressing as it should?
    It is just speculation and there are 100s of reasons for the silence, but 1 of them might be that there is another offer (a better one!?!) on the table which they are evaluating.
    Another reason and that would be the play I would pursue if I would be in the shoes of the Senior lenders (SL) is the following - the SPA dies and you go for a underwritten cap raise. As we are not trading, the question is at what price should you issue new shares. The low ball of offer of the SPA would potentially value the company at 40-50M or 0,02 per share. If they would issue new shares in that ball park (0,02 per share) and I think the agreement with the SL says that they need to raise 48M that would mean 2,4 B new shares. It would more than double the share count.
    As TGS pissed off in the last couple of month every retail shareholder, probably a lot of them would not essentially double the cash invested into TGS to avoid a dilution. If the SLs fully underwrite the Cap raise it is likely that from the 35% they already own - they could increase their share beyond 50%. If the would get 1,6B (of the 2,4B) new shares at 0,02 the would need to invest 32M to increase to 50%+.
    As the cap raise is intended to fix the balance sheet, TGS would probably take some money to pay back debt? Evt. 32M? so basically it could mean for the SL a swap of 32M debt into an additional 15% stake of the company and to have a majority stake.
    If you then take the rest of the money not used to pay back debt and build a cobalt production and get copper production back on track - you have an asset that is easily worth 400M+ and the SLs would be in control!
    This would be my way to play this as a SL. So why should the SL take the SPA and get their money back, but almost nothing for their shares if they could benefit a lot more (200M+ for the shares + money back for the debt + a lot of interest on the debt).

    Evt. the silence is caused by one of the other 98 reasons that I did not write down here, but the 2 above where the most optimistic ones to me as a retail shareholder.

    Just my little thought... in the silence.
 
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