CVN 5.88% 16.0¢ carnarvon energy limited

Ann: Thailand Operations Update , page-2

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  1. 661 Posts.
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    This update puts current production at "approximately 8,000 BOPD gross" and forecasts "the Joint Venture to
    produce between 1 to 1.5 mmbbls per annum".

    According to my math that annual figure is only 4,100 BOPD (unless they only average for weekdays!) This is a long way from previous forecasts 10,000+ BOPD. So either the market had not priced in the 10,000 forecast or there is a correction to come? I was hoping support at 44 would hold but now I am not so sure. The good news on L20/50 and the new rig did not really lift the price much, nor the significant increase in the A$ price of oil. There is a lot of uncertainty in the general market, affecting more risk plays like CVN.

    Anyone have any thoughts on what production rate is factored into the current price, I think the previous brokers reports are a bit out of date now.
 
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