CVN 5.88% 16.0¢ carnarvon energy limited

Ann: Thailand Operations Update , page-3

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  1. 2,163 Posts.
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    There is some good stuff/news in the drilling programme to 31/12.
    Firstly you arguably have to try to understand what CVN means by "the primary drilling rig used by the JV has exibited superior performance over the last year....".
    It can ,IMO, only mean it has been performing better lately than previously.That doesnt mean it is economical to do S drilling (see shortly).
    The big rig has struggled to drill 35 or even 32 drills a year-most have been pure V drills but there have been 1 or 2 complex V and S exploration drills in the mix at times..
    The 14 wells scheduled to 31/12 are all described as Development wells.
    As such the partners are able to anticipate some success,which they have done ,and they say that "..each well is expected to produce 150bopd".
    Thats a likely 2100bopd addition to current produc tion (thats 840bopd to CVN,bringing our likely exit rate for 2011 to about 2000 bopd).
    But can they complete 14 wells in about 4 months? Well yes they can, but onlywith the help of a second rig.
    Definitely not with just the big rig and as the schedule includes several S wells, with some even in WB ,then there is absolutely no doubt that the partners confidently expect to have the use of a second rig in the "September onwards" timeframe.
    Im sticking with my assertion that to use the big rig for S drilling in WB would be like your local pizza shop delivering pizzas for free ,in a limo.
    Forget the "may" qualification re the 2nd rig.
    To see how they can confidently estimate 150 bopd from 14 wells you only have to observe that it includes 5 S wells in WBext that I speculated were gimmes for 100-200 bopd (to the JV,or 40 to 80 to CVN).
    2000 bopd-sounds good to me. So does the near-certaintly of getting going on the S programme with a decent S rig.
    Did I say I liked Phoenix?
 
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