When you have a four hour presentation with 163 slides, the...

When you have a four hour presentation with 163 slides, the question is 'what are you hiding?'

This company will not revert back to what it was, that's clear. In fact, they are forecasting some pretty average outcomes into the medium term, and the long term is in the 'never never' to my mind. Their optimistic hope is for EBITDA margins to return to the 'mid teens' in the next 5+ years, and revenue to grow from $1.2 to $2bn in that timeframe.

To walk that back, in FY18 they had around $270m of EBITDA. That's about the level they are forecasting in +5yrs. Prior to this whole blow up, until FY20 they were running around 30-35% EBITDA margins. In FY21 due to the channell issue, they dropped down to around 10% margins. So there may be a small bounce in the short term, but even with their optomistic outlook it's topline growth of ~8% into the medium term, and EBITDA growth of ~14% into the medium term from the bottom. Doesn't sound like that'd be worth EV/EBITDA multiple of 34 that it is currently trading at.

In the end, I think the market competition has caught up with A2M's branding. GLTAH.