Replies to flywhale, doubledown47, stockbluesky, hoa. Musings to be taken as speculations with a little insight into the exploration game. DYOR. May have been some cross posts I didn't see. Apologies if so.
I assume you (flywhale) are referring to last month's Crean results.
Also another 'good' section with thick high grade results (200m to the east) was subsequently reported. In the assay result's announcement for holes further east thinner and lower grade results were reported. Still around 1% so not too bad (#165 400m E 18m/1.2%; 200mE #181 + the original hole EAL008 - total "lower, thinner" extension of some 600+m).
The individual holes are excellent. However, the dyke nature of the host carbonatite does constrain the size potential such that grade does need to be consistently high both along and across strike to generate a large deposit.
Another four fences of aircore have since been drilled to test the western extensions of the zone above - a further 750m of potential strike.
So far the high grade Nbx seen in the West Arunta have mostly been concentrated in supergene blankets above fresh carbonatite. This is a further probable constraint on the size of the deposits at Crean. Even if high grade does extend down dip in the carbonatite (likely to be patchy, but could) the metallurgy of supergene vs fresh will be different. ================= For a 500m section of this dyke at 100m wide (optimistic?) and a consistent (?) 40m supergene blanket the volume is 2M Cu meters. SG of say 2 gives 4 Mt potential for these assumptions. Grade/consistency? 1-3% Nb2O5 (Nbx). Nice but relatively deep and in this area not likely to be a standalone deposit. =============
The market has digested the announced information and for whatever reasons marked the SP down. IMO it is not just the above limited potential but overall sentiment that is reflected in WA1's SP as well. Which leads to DD47's query that cannot be readily answered with any certainty. Market melt down globally doesn't help investor confidence and this extends to all levels. Combined with a cooling off for critical metals, real or imagined, doesn't help. Welcome to the exploration market cycles - market cycles generally...
Market expectations for ENR were raised by the Crean intersections and then dashed by Green results (I hope there will be some good indications forthcoming at Green but they will be....). Perce Mawson results are unknown but visuals from the recent Hurley DDs have been announced - implication not great for the former two IMO.
Feeding the market constant good results is a rarity - DEG, CHN, WA1 are some examples for good discovery phases. BUT, after awhile "good" results seem to be the norm and no longer excite the initial interest garnered.
ENR results (IMO) are seen, for better or worse, in comparison to Luni (eg @LST123 above for example) which is truly world class for size and grade. Hi grade, smaller, thinner, patchier with possibility of being possible satellite deposits down the track for any Luni development is my general view. Still huge tracts of land to be explored which may change the equation
Can the supply demand cycle even take another Luni size discovery?
IMO it is going to be interesting to watch what happens with the development, or not, of Luni. More likely than not but interesting nonetheless.
What will be a world class result?
Fresh carbonatite is unlikely to contain the same level of elements seen in the weathered zone. At Araxa and in the West Arunta fresh carbonatite does show local higher grades but rarely that of the supergene blankets. Very unlikely the 1.55% Nbx extends to fresh rock other than locally IMO. Reply @hoa
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