@Barry81 we get scant information from AEV/JDC on the progress of IHP these days, however, I would be optimistic that the mods will be successful largely as I believe that there is a good body of laboratory testwork to support the changes.
Nonetheless, no SH should not be deluded into thinking that a technical success, automatically means, commercial success. Even if the modified plant works faultlessly, there is a very long way to go to upscale from ~8,000 - 9,000 tpa of SPA to ~150,000 tpa. We are talking very big kilns, with specialist linings and all the engineering and thermodynamics that goes with them.
My guess would be that they will move cautiously and make the next plant perhaps a quarter, third or maybe half size plant to reduce the capital risk and enable operational learnings to be incorporated in the next up-scale.
JDC might also want to stay close to home for the next plant and build it in Florida, where they could use a low-grade feed from an existing operation. Alternatively, AEV may seek to exercise one of its licences but if they do, I would expect them to build in Senegal, not Australia, for much the same reason as JDC might want to build one in Florida. They have an existing mine and production could easily be expanded to feed an IHP plant, whereas Wonarah would require a complete mine development, which would increase the risk to AEV.
In terms of timing. Well its anyone's guess, but I think that it would be stretching it to think that we would see the next plant built in three years, most probably 5 years. My rationale is 1 years worth of operational data from the pilot plant. A year to analyse the data and to engineer the next scale plant, including vendor validation of engineering calculations (the supplier of each plant item will no doubt be asked to guarantee the performance of their equipment, in what will be, a unique application. They won't do that without checking the JDC calculations, several times!). A year for approvals (possibly two), followed by a two-year construction and commissioning period.
To put this all in context, I believe that this August will mark 8 years since MAK originally invested in JDC, so what's another 5!!
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