no,lets say they keep margin of 60%so need 49m ebitdax equating...

no,

lets say they keep margin of 60%

so need 49m ebitdax equating to 81mm in sales.

if average 14,500 boepd (per guidance) @ blended rate of $48  * 91 days = 63.5m *.6 = 38m so roughly 10mm short

Can they make up -opportunities
LOE could come down 1$ = save a $1m
all other expenses bopd maybe another $1m
blended rate could go up but hedged 100% so roughly be same if not down so likely lose advantage of previous 2 opportunities.
they beat prodn guidance but doubtful  - already at top end

If they make 90 ebitdax FY, given beginning of year, then thats not to bad; not great but not complete disaster. question is is 250mln guidance in 2019 achievable

quickly
21,500 boepd * 365 * blended rate 50$ *.6 = 235mln. But could bring down expenses by 2$ which is another 15m so yes possible to get to 250 in 2019.

Given type curve maybe able to increase percentage liquid which may offset  any decrease in commodity pricing. If blended rate 45$ then ebitdax wld be around 230 (incl.possible savings)

Today I would say 2019 be between 220 and 240 But the most important thing is if the mrkt doesnt fall apart then one can justify a sp of 20c end 2019 - all things going great but need to be fcf+