Ann: Third Quarter Activity & Cashflow Report-THX.AX, page-15

A fair amount of reading, I have some underperforming U shares so I have read many articles, as well as read a lot of mislead hype and marketing. Keep in mind that the "marketing" and "hype" have repeatedly declared that a market recovery would happen every couple of years-away - it was 2015, then 2018, then 2020, and so on.

The most reliable forecasts out there are the 2020-2050 year forecasts by the IIASA/WEC, and are still very respected in terms of reliability even though the initial forecast was published a long time before Fukushima. Google it. I can't recall if there has been a revision of the forecasts post-F, but if there hasn't been then the forecasts are still deemed reliable.

There's many case scenarios presented (supply vs demand scenarios), so it's up to you to decide which case you think would play out.

I've chosen to find the lower case scenarios more probable, I believe Fukushima hurt the whole industry industry enough to keep the market depressed for more years to come - production took a LONG time to wind down and large inventories have been built up.. Even if Japan restarted all their reactors they have inventories to run them for a while, so it wouldn't initially impact actual demand..

More and more in my reading of papers and forecasts am I seeing the years of 2025 onwards turn up for a theorised market recovery for Uranium mining and exploration. You decide what you think though.

That's not to say that some U shares can't be profitable in current times though. But to be profitable they need to have production costs that are insanely low - e.g.: BKY's C1 cost obliterates other explorers trying to get to production, look at their share performance and progress vs an Australian company like TOE who's C1 cost will stop them from getting to production for years unless they find ways to do it cheaper.