Agree on your comment about BKL should have bought BAL. I think...

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medici

214 Posts.

29/04/16

21:41

Post #: 17638527

Originally posted by Wuey72 ↑

Alterego, clearly your interpretation of growth rate is different to mine. See table below. These are actual reported results:

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6

1 Year/Qtr (million) 1st (July-Sep) 2nd (Oct-Dec) 3rd (Jan-Mar) 4th (Apr-Jun) NPAT

2 2014 5.4 6.7 5.4 7.9 25.4

3 2015 8.7 10 12.2 15.8 46.7

4 2016 22.6 25.7 27.3 ? ?

Two observations: 4th quarter is their best performing quarter, so expecting about 30 million plus. Secondly, the first three quarters of 2016 they have doubled quarter to quarter in 2015. When you compare growth, qoq isn't ideal. You cannot possible grow 100% every three months. Have a look at what NPAT could be in 2016. I'm expecting over 100 million. The final makeup will depend on how BKL cost and rejig numbers.
Demand is still strong. Even projecting 50% (very conservative) for 2017, NPAT will come in over 150 million. Christine's ambition is to achieve 1 billion in sales. She was quoted as saying having trouble sleeping at night worrying about sourcing enough raw materials to keep up with demand.
The only error BKL has made is not buying BAL at current prices. With the scrip nearing $160, all they need to do is issue 8 million shares and buy BAL for 1.28 billion!!!

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Agree on your comment about BKL should have bought BAL.
I think BKL should have just at least bought in 19.9% of BAL in Oct 2015 instead of making a joint venture. So that BKL can enjoy direct share of BAL's successful business without further investment in marketing a new Infant Formula product line...
I just hope BKL won't get hurt for doing infant formula business...I know so damn well how hard this business is..

BKL Price at posting: $161.00 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

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