Good analysis BD.Subscriber numbers have accelerated in the last...

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09/11/23

16:28

Post #: 70814641
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Originally posted by BrutalDeluxe: ↑

Onbalance, I think this is a mildly positive set of results.The key positives for me are:

·Subscriber numbers have picked up again in the last 8 days.It suggests there is still a lot more growth to come here.
·October UMS up 20% from September, larger than I anticipated.I anticipate a similar increase in November.
·Only a small fall in customer numbers (to 2.572m).That should be the bottom.
·Ramping up of growth initiatives.It is growth (whilst remaining profitable) that is going to lead to the stock rerating.

Someof the disappointments for me are:

·The delay in delivering the banking partnership.However, I’m glad “substantial progress” has been made.
·Limited earnings leverage from the growth delivered.The pick-up in credit losses in Q4 should offset the revenue growth, leading to another small profit.They really need to address the interest expense, which is consuming ~80% of their EBIT.I appreciate they won’t raise capital at this SP.Hopefully the banking partner can help out here.

Ithink it my take another quarter for the market to wake up to Sezzle.Q4 growth will be strong and the progress of the 18 months will be clear.Fingers crossed the banking partnership would be announced by then.

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Good analysis BD.

Subscriber numbers have accelerated in the last 8 days from a net daily increase over Aug, Sept and Oct of about 470 new subscribers per day, to a net increase of over 1,100 new subscribers per day in November so far. This acceleration might reflect the Anywhere product being made available to more users.

If the revenue margin of 8.7% continues into October it should translate to company revenue of usd$15.4m on UMS of $176.5m. Looking forward you could say November and December might be even greater, e.g. Oct to Nov 2022 saw an increase of 12%.

SZL Price at posting: $16.03 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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