OCC 1.37% 36.0¢ orthocell limited

Although an investor presentation hasn't been released to market...

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    Although an investor presentation hasn't been released to market since February 2023, (which BTW seems very strange to me. I think it would be helpful to investors to release a presentation with the quarterly results like many of its peers but I won't hold my breath since I've only heard crickets after emailing investor enquiries) I think it's worth recalling Paul's presentation at the JP Equity Investor Briefing in November 2023 where the wholesale revenue expectations for Striate+ and Remplir were presented:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6247/6247568-21aa5d475ce7450b4059a2f09e667de7.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6247/6247571-24c4fe6910eface73747d220d7b611dd.jpg

    If you blinked and missed it, you can watch it here: JP Equity Partners presented an Investor Briefing 'Boom of the Biotech' on Thursday 17th November 2023. I also did a post showing the slides and some of my miscalculations Post #:71267574

    Hopefully, we'll see something similar to the above for SmrtGraft in a future presentation to help set our expectations.

    Regarding the share price, hopefully this gentleman is correct:

    [Paul Anderson]: "We've got a really exciting six months ahead of us with with a possible FDA approval in Q1 of 2025. Uh, and so, you know, we see that with increasing revenues and increasing product registrations, that's going to be a real correction to our share price and our market cap in the coming months." - https://aus biz.com.au/media/orthocell-is-smiling-after-successful-study?videoId=35829

    I've checked my calendar to try to get a glimpse of what PA might be seeing (feel free to correct my mistakes or missed something):

    Increasing Revenues:
    • July 2024: Q424 & FY24 Results
    ~ Step up in Q4 revenue like last year? >$2M? (I imagine it could be higher with increased Striate+ orders in EU/UK)
    ~ Total Revenues FY24 (excl. $3.1M R&D rebate): >$6.9M? (~35% growth Y/Y)

    • October 2024: Q125 Results
    ~ Step up in Q1 revenue like last year? >$2.1M? (I imagine it could be higher with increased Striate+ orders in EU/UK)
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6247/6247657-a19a2fa657ed1f9755c7c74e60f7b52c.jpg

    Increasing Product Registrations:
    (which ultimately lead to partnerships and new revenue streams)

    DATEPRODUCTCATALYSTS
    113/02/2024 Remplir Singapore Application for Remplir
    211/06/2024 SmrtGraft TGA Application for SmrtGraft
    3Q3 CY24 Remplir "Remplir US 510k regulatory study on track for completion and data read out in Q3 CY24"
    411/06/24 + 60 business days? = 3/9/24? SmrtGraft TGA Approval for SmrtGraft?
    513/02/24 + 240 days? = 10/10/24? Remplir Singapore Approval for Remplir?
    62024? SmrtGraft Partner for SmrtGraft
    72024? Remplir Partner for Remplir (US, EU/UK)
    82024? OrthoATI Partner for OrthoATI
    9Q4 CY24 Remplir "Remplir US regulatory application on track for submission in Q4 CY24"
    10Q1 CY25 Remplir "Remplir US approval in Q1 CY25"
    11Q1 CY25 Remplir "Progression into sales soon thereafter"
    12November 2024+ Striate+ Regulatory Approval - Canada
    13Nov 24 - Nov 25 Striate+ Regulatory Approval - Brazil
    14Nov 24 - Nov 25 Striate+ Regulatory Approval - Japan

    With increasing revenue and the above milestones achieved, I agree with Paul and can see the potential for the SP to be substantially higher over the next 6-7months and beyond (the revenue ramp up has really only just started and has a long way to go).
    Last edited by saltland: 15/06/24
 
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