Although an investor presentation hasn't been released to market since
February 2023, (which BTW seems very strange to me. I think it would be helpful to investors to release a presentation with the quarterly results like many of its peers but I won't hold my breath since I've only heard crickets after emailing investor enquiries) I think it's worth recalling Paul's presentation at the JP Equity Investor Briefing in November 2023 where the wholesale revenue expectations for Striate+ and Remplir were presented:
If you blinked and missed it, you can watch it here:
JP Equity Partners presented an Investor Briefing 'Boom of the Biotech' on Thursday 17th November 2023. I also did a post showing the slides and some of my miscalculations
Post #:71267574Hopefully, we'll see something similar to the above for SmrtGraft in a future presentation to help set our expectations.
Regarding the share price, hopefully this gentleman is correct:
[Paul Anderson]: "We've got a really exciting six months ahead of us with with a possible FDA approval in Q1 of 2025. Uh, and so, you know, we see that with increasing revenues and increasing product registrations, that's going to be a real correction to our share price and our market cap in the coming months." - https://aus biz.com.au/media/orthocell-is-smiling-after-successful-study?videoId=35829I've checked my calendar to try to get a glimpse of what PA might be seeing (feel free to correct my mistakes or missed something):
Increasing Revenues:- July 2024: Q424 & FY24 Results
~ Step up in Q4 revenue like last year? >$2M? (I imagine it could be higher with increased Striate+ orders in EU/UK)
~ Total Revenues FY24 (excl. $3.1M R&D rebate): >$6.9M? (~35% growth Y/Y)- October 2024: Q125 Results
~ Step up in Q1 revenue like last year? >$2.1M? (I imagine it could be higher with increased Striate+ orders in EU/UK)
Increasing Product Registrations:(which ultimately lead to partnerships and new revenue streams) | DATE | PRODUCT | CATALYSTS |
|---|
| 1 | 13/02/2024 | Remplir | Singapore Application for Remplir |
|---|
| 2 | 11/06/2024 | SmrtGraft | TGA Application for SmrtGraft |
|---|
| 3 | Q3 CY24 | Remplir | "Remplir US 510k regulatory study on track for completion and data read out in Q3 CY24" |
|---|
| 4 | 11/06/24 + 60 business days? = 3/9/24? | SmrtGraft | TGA Approval for SmrtGraft? |
|---|
| 5 | 13/02/24 + 240 days? = 10/10/24? | Remplir | Singapore Approval for Remplir? |
|---|
| 6 | 2024? | SmrtGraft | Partner for SmrtGraft |
|---|
| 7 | 2024? | Remplir | Partner for Remplir (US, EU/UK) |
|---|
| 8 | 2024? | OrthoATI | Partner for OrthoATI |
|---|
| 9 | Q4 CY24 | Remplir | "Remplir US regulatory application on track for submission in Q4 CY24" |
|---|
| 10 | Q1 CY25 | Remplir | "Remplir US approval in Q1 CY25" |
|---|
| 11 | Q1 CY25 | Remplir | "Progression into sales soon thereafter" |
|---|
| 12 | November 2024+ | Striate+ | Regulatory Approval - Canada |
|---|
| 13 | Nov 24 - Nov 25 | Striate+ | Regulatory Approval - Brazil |
|---|
| 14 | Nov 24 - Nov 25 | Striate+ | Regulatory Approval - Japan |
|---|
With increasing revenue and the above milestones achieved, I agree with Paul and can see the potential for the SP to be substantially higher over the next 6-7months and beyond (the revenue ramp up has really only just started and has a long way to go).
(20min delay)