So, they expect pro forma underlying NPAT of 75 m NZD (around 68 m AUD) for FY 23 :
- including 27 m for the 5 months of Apollo before the merger (30/11/22),
- including 9 m coming from the sale of 310 motorhomes to Juicy Rentals.
Not easy to see what was their previous expectation.
Looking at the merger presentation (in Nov 22), they were expecting a NPAT of 30 m NZD for THL alone (including 3.5 m one off transaction cost) and 21.3 m for Apollo alone (including 3.3 m one off transaction costs). So 51.3 m of NPAT for the merged entity (before synergies) and 58.1 m of underlying profit (excluding one off cost). So their new forecast of 75 m NZD seems to be compared to the previous expectation of 58.1 m.
Apparently not much synergies to expect in FY 23* (reminder : they were expecting synergies of 27-31 m / year when they merged).
On this basis, their market cap (805 m AUD) looks moderate.
I just wonder how much of their FY 23 results is explained by the capital gains when they sell their rental vehicles (which I think is included in their underlying profit**). As we know that this part of their business has been boosted in the short term by the large price increase for second hand vehicles.
Reminder of what they were saying in Oct 21.
"broadly, we see no structural reason why THL can't achieve the 50 m NPAT target we set in 2017, within 2 years of global tourism operating in a pre-covid-like manner".
Looking at the result they expect for the merged entity in FY 23, they are probably on track with this target.
* delayed by about 12 months according to their presentation in Nov 22.
** according to their presentations, their cash flow from operation include the sale and purchase of rental assets. So this is considered as their normal activity and is probably included in the underlying profit.
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So, they expect pro forma underlying NPAT of 75 m NZD (around 68...
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