THL 2.62% $1.96 tourism holdings rentals limited

We have to consider both the valuation and the financial...

  1. 4,141 Posts.
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    We have to consider both the valuation and the financial situation.
    Based on today's share price, it looks cheap with a PE 26 of 3.9 x (taking their target of 100 m$ NPAT in FY 26).
    Even if we just look at FY 24, it still looks cheap with a PE of only 7.6 x, while FY 24 is expected to be the bottom for their short term earnings.
    The company also looks cheap based on its their equities (618 m NZD at 31/12/23*).

    Risks at this stage :
    - potential need for a capital increase to improve their financial situation**,
    - stock could go back to its bottom of 1 NZD (in NZX) during covid.

    They seem to have a regular problem of cash flow, as their cash flow from operation has been negative during the last 2 years and a half.
    But this is only due to the fact that they have to book their purchase of rental assets in their cash flow from operation.
    Excluding this item, they would have a significant cash flow from operation.

    Given their tight financial situation, it is not a surprise to see the company revising down the growth of its fleet to a rental fleet below 9,000 at end of FY 25 (vs previous guidance of a rental fleet below 9,500 at end FY 25).

    My main difficulty with their business model remains that they seem to largely depend on the resale of their ex-rental vehicles.
    I have never been able to find a figure for their cash flow, excluding the proceed from sale of ex rentals.

    * this figure may be inflated by different elements. Probably more cautious to consider equities excluding intangible assets (191 m NZD). In that case, market cap is close to equity value.
    ** for now, the company says that it does not need to raise capital, but it will work with its banks to modify its covenants.

 
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$1.96
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0.050(2.62%)
Mkt cap ! $426.6M
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$1.97 $1.99 $1.96 $22.18K 11.27K

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