ok - saturday morning coffee this time
@SBG14 - beyond what i said yesterday - i think a real crux to RDM and your frustration for long hold's is one of market structure
imo - but admittedly its only that - the real challenge is Maronan is a potential tier 2 asset - sitting in a company designed for exploration only.
ie a big project sitting in a small co
that can work fine if a large project is discovered and mobilised to an advanced and de-risked state all while metal prices are in a bull market
thats when the RDM mgt approach of letting drill results talk works.
drill results pump the sp - cr or spinout occurs - project gets another set of legs via more advanced drilling etc
but if you go through a big bear - and 2011-2021 was the biggest commodity investment bear market in 100 years on relative valuation basis
- once you come out of it the big projects need active prosecution... or fresh drill results
and the challenge with Maronan is its high cost to drill - and at the end of a bear market most explorers are struggling to keep the lights on
RDM had no funds or fund availability + it had freshly inked the Oz JV precisely to navigate the bear - so that naturally then became the main focus
in 10 years an entire generation of brokers, fundies and analysts gets turned over.
almost no one was left last year who would have remembered Maronan in the broad market - and those who do would remember it in the context of a time when
sustained US$20+ silver prices would seem unlikely with high risk it would go back to $10
thats kind of generational 'it didnt work on the numbers' mindset colours what recall is left
its also that the first bull wave after a bear market chases the light capex close to surface stories - because people are uncommitted to how long or high the bull wave will go
thats part of why a story like ARD pumped - even though its a joke of a project imo as currently specced - where RDM caught almost none of last year's silver investment wave except when it was about to drill non Maronan projects
its why I only bought RDM this year - despite having known about Maronan for a decade
I also had some misconceptions from earlier times about where mineralisation started from - that only talking with the CEO could correct
for every 1 investor who bothers to make the enquiry - 99 others would simply say 'no ty'
thats the largest part of the explanation for why I think RDM functions as it does sp wise to this point
and an investment here doesnt change the fact that Im still entirely reliant on rising metal prices changing the durability of the sp wave and then MMA float and project go forward
But I also think the risk/reward here is nothing short of superb - precisely because the above means the project is more deeply discounted than it would be if it were fronted by a billionaire mining name or held in a vehicle that had active market representation
which is why a float makes some sense to me - because it is a project few in the broad market are likely to know about - probably a bit more awareness now after the float plan was announced - simply because the broker would have had some preamble talks
doesnt change anything
but i thought this might help for your reflections - not just about RDM - but in thinking about what exposures you take and when elsewhere
again - just one person's view.
Maronan's a ~5.8Moz, 3.6g/t gold equivalent estimated resource atm if i use the full 19Mt gold/copper estimate - albeit thats only inferred - but that value is hidden because its 4 metals and largely out of mind.
id say you could count on 1-2 sets of fingers and toes the number of people in Australia who would know that
but the history, nature of company that holds it, and the need for a gestalt shift up in metal price ranges to make deeper mineralisation more likely to be economic are all reasons why that is the case
and given mgt has used the same style for 20 years - i think only metal price shifts will unlock sustainable sp uprates.
but then its a bigger rubber band if that occurs
(20min delay)