RDM 3.33% 15.5¢ red metal limited

Re spin out To understand timing if it you need to understand...

  1. 9,779 Posts.
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    Re spin out

    To understand timing if it you need to understand how they work esp re existing projects

    for investors to cough up funds for a ‘goes deep’ project like maronan that’s expensive to drill - they have to hold high conviction on a decent period of very strong metal prices - in this case silver and lead mainly

    deeper a project goes more upfront capex is required to explore and develop it - cost and time are both higher vs near surface projects

    so the risk of getting marooned as metal prices recede is higher ie what happened since 2011

    people don’t buy into a spin out just for some quiet up and down 5 yr hold as a result

    it needs to have a decent chance of coming on strong and up rating well - which is where maronan’s high relative grade and cheap cost per ounce are big assets

    for all those reasons it would be foolish to attempt the spin out unless and until the next big silver price move was well underway

    + maronan is the main rdm sp support. If rdm only has 50% ownership post spin out then it’s important for maa’s spp to be rising and dragging rdm up

    honestly this is markets 102 - extremely surprised most of you don’t seem to understand tjis

    anyway / projects like maronan have a more pronounced
    fear/greed range as a result

    so higher metal prices go and in particular the higher people think they may go in future - the more the high capex is overshadowed by the economic prize potential

    id be extremely surprised if maronan seems to list below silver us 30

    but technically once silver does hit 30 it could be only
    weeks for it to hit 55 - technically there’s an air pocket 30-47 that price can move through very easily

    snd if silver goes above 50 your in s new all time high price area and silver price could go anything

    and thats where the high capex of maronan would become an afterthought vs the high grade cheap ounces and massive scale of economic value

    hence what I said about big rocket ship needing big engine to achieve escape velocity

 
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