Not great news , that’s for sure.As of now, I’m in the red on...

Not great news , that’s for sure.
As of now, I’m in the red on TIE , for the first time in a long while.
I guess that the market will have lost all confidence now, after one guidance miss after another.
something I have been banging on about.
likely this was the reason for Mark and Caigans departure.Most of what they said has not occurred. I would rather they told the truth earlier.
For MW and CB ( I imagine Clinton knew most of this before he signed up) , there is a big job to turn it around.
The process plant looks to be performing well at circa 4.8 MTPA rate. The de- bottlenecking Process they mention May? achieve a little more ( they mention an additional 15 % more throughput , but no costs to achieve this) . I suspect most of the plants capacity has been absorbed already , so it could become costly, as the plant already above nameplate.
ALL the upside has to come from the mine, which looks to be underperforming on most metrics.

Positives
1. Now moving out of the wet season, allowing productivity improvements in mining, and better dewatering to be put in place
2. Process plant performing well
3. Heap leach could be progressed during the dry season - but no mention of this in announcement . Maybe preserve capital first .
4. Producing reasonable amounts of cash, and paying down debt
5. Mining ( should?) finally be able to get ahead of milling and increase stockpile volumes and grade.
6. Exploration success on their leases

Negatives
1. Consistent failure to meet guidance has trashed managements reputation.
2. TIE a sitting duck for low ball takeover offer
3. No confidence yet in consistency. Can they make even the new lower guidance ?

Overall , it’s the perfect storm for TIE.West Africa a political mess of coups and instability, poor gold production for the first 8 months , greatly reduced mine forecasts at increased AISC.Not much sunlight in the rain.

interestingly, the shorts have been proven correct, and have no doubt done very well over the sp drop of 25 % yesterday.

any guesses as to what TIE,s MC should be now, given its new likely production and margins ?

WAF by comparison have been consistently hitting it out of the park production wise, yet their sp also caned , because of their geographical location.

So the West Africa discount remains ever present too.

someone, cheer me up !