@Panikos, i think that gold projection is a bit too optimistic.
16,000 tonnes per day ( assume it means dry tonnes ? but not stated in the announcement) is a rate of 5.8 MTPA
There is no way they can achieve that consistently, it is the peak rate , as stated.
At a DFS of 4 MTPA, a grade of 1.0 gpt and factoring in recovery ( never 100 %) and plant availability /utilization ( never 100 %)
I used 94 and 95 % respectively ( optimistic), and got circa 57,000 ozs for the 6 months.
Lets assume the process plant can consistently do 20 % over the DFS , ie 4.8 MTPA at 1.0 gpt
Then gold production of 68000 ozs for the half year.
And that implies no reduction in processing during the wet season ( Q3-now) , and no reduction of tonnage due to processing harder ( fresh) ore .
To achieve the 100,000 ozs in the 6 months , with all of the above, needs a grade of around 1.6 gpt minimum.
Or double the Q2 grade.
Is that possible - YES
Is it likely - NO
my thoughts are that the next 2 quarters will be steady improvement , but not enough to make guidance .
my guess - Q3- 30000 ozs, Q4- 40000 0zs
Which implies 95000-100,000 ozs for calendar year 2023.
I do hope its better than that .
But I can live with continuous improvement quarter by quarter.
Others can run the financials better than I to see how profitable Tietto is at those production levels .
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