Well, first of all , my prediction of an operations update...

Well, first of all , my prediction of an operations update within a week came to pass.

This is an excellent update which should give Mr Market great confidence that the new CEO &
management are on top of their game.

My take away from the report is:
-Stockpile at port @ 31st of Aug = 232K ton
-forecast Sept-Oct......................= 130K ton (average of the forecast range of 120K to 140K ton)
-shipped/loaded YTD 31st Aug..= 239K ton
- Total to the end of Oct..............=601K ton (shipping* and sales permitting, IMO)

In this context, TIG's forecast of 440K ton - 495K ton sales this shipping season are looking more conservative by the minute.

The mix of thermal to SSCC is interesting (likely average price/ton) and my take that is:

-that the average FOB price will increase because "Coal qualities mined through to the end of the shipping season being expected to remain in line with that mined for the two months to 31st Aug" (see above)

-that the mix of SSCC to thermal for July & Aug was 85.7K ton SSCC & 34.4K ton thermal (this is a massive improvement on 2017) which is due to current mined coal being " sourced from deeper benches in the pit"

Even if TIG only sells 495K ton in 2018 its profit should be $30 mil, IMO, due to the increased % of SSCC.
(AUD $60+/ton margin)
Cheers
MM


*Last year TIG could have shipped into NOV if it had product/sales in situ ( I guess it will have contingency plans for this in late Oct & Nov.). The above report mentions that as of 31st Aug that TIG
is half way into the shipping season which means that TIG expects to ship to at least the end of October.