So very true Cloudcap. Reading your posts I feel you and GW must have crossed paths at the same MBA school! - the clarity and confidence in your words.
Turning to GWs preso, the narrative, detail and ability to convey how the PFS was assembled including pricing and cost assumptions was simply brilliant. GWs control of the narrative without a script just conveys how “knee deep” he is in the detail but at the same how strategic he and the board are moving towards a near term project, early revenue and free cash flow. As regards the later GW says to “boot load” the company across this project and other pathways at TVN.
A few things really impressed me.
First, the pricing analysis which a few on this forum erroneously suggested an overly ambitious forward looking price. Well no he discussed the revenue and pricing side - based on empirical evidence using historical pricing trends and capping that price trend at 2030 - rather than continuing that trend for LOM. That should shut a few peopleup that the revenue side is very considered not aggressive.
Secondly, the F imbalance in China and the data he assembled from his good mates at Exante showing China’s F imports ahead of exports in recent years and China managing depletion rates was off the charts impressive. It doesn’t take a rhode scolar to recognise that global depletion rates, no other greenfield projects possibly this decade and a price for F that is trending up, makes the Speewah F resource highly valuable.
And coupled with an expansion resource program, which will be proven up through drilling, the modelled pre tax NPV of $500m per the PFS could be significantly enhanced. This could very easily be a $1bn plus project in NPV terms based on current assumptions once project expansion is confirmed. An escalating price for Fluorspar would simply rebase valuation again.
Today we are not a $100m market cap company. Well we are but that value in no way reflects the PFS outcomes nor the sum of other parts. Inherently I’m seeing us at a least 5 times current day valuation. I think that will unfold before year end. It’s a big few months ahead. The AGM timing of Nov should reflect some better valuation.
In closing brilliant work by Tivan, Board, Grant and all the externals in delivering a robust PFS which is best in class. Whilst the start it’s gotta make the journey to a DFS, FID and a commercial and bankable project a reality.
Onwards
TVN Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
