Originally posted by thebeautifulstyle
hahaha, gutted at $4 a share. Thanks for the laugh whatsnext.
The reason I laugh is that a lot of holders here would take that $4 in a flash,
and unlikely to be 'gutted', Im sure.
(one has to consider the dilution that will happen to fund this coy to production, and I think
$4, as the share price is so low right now, is out of the question)
pls permit me to put it in quantitative terms, in a simple back of an envelope style:
Assuming TMT get to production, either through an ER or a major inwestor.
TMT will then have $380m in the bank to fund the project or rather $450m if they plan
to build the gas pipeline.
The shareprice will remain the same, because the $450 offsets the increase in the
number of shares raised for this money (Asset - Equity difference = 0).
Now assuming a $30m a year profit from production and selling the V.
And in turn assuming a PE of 5 at this point, then MC will be $150m (30x5)
MC now however is $18m.
150/18 = 8.3.
So in this scenario will see around 8x bags on your investment today (not bad hey)
This equates to a share price of around $2 a share.
Why did I use a PE of 5 and not 15 as most people like to use? Because 5 seems to be the
standard in Resources these days, for small companies.
People dont invest in the sector like they used to durng the last boom a number of years ago.
(PLS for eg is trading on about 5x future earnings)
The speculation and boom may not happen again for a long time. Of course there will be
spikes up occasionally like in 2017, but they would be signals to get out and sell.
Contrarian views welcome.
