I think you are understating the likely current holding of APAC.
As of EOD 30 September (the day they went sub 5% threshold) they held
51,298,514 shares exactly.
Here's the ASX volume since then (black arrow is pointing at Sep. 30, so deduct any APAC selling after then from the figure above):
Chances are they still hold at least 40 million. It's anyone's guess, but there is zero chance that they're down to circa 20m.
I think you're right in saying this is the supply issue at the moment, it would be good to get this monkey off. I don't think short selling is the issue.
Capital Raising in the short term? They don't
have to (because they have the Nebari facility) but maybe the will try an get something away to sure up the cash position. September Quarterly will be critical reading imo.
(20min delay)